Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Mark Twain once said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  Despite this obvious observation, our society focuses so mightily on statistics, you’d think we revere them as if they’re stone cold facts.  Commercials that tell you “Three out of four dentists recommend Crest.”  ”Lysol kills 99.9% of germs.”  Studies show “2-5 cups of coffee a day keeps Alzheimers away.”  ”Drinking 1-2 glasses of red wine prevent xyz”

I’m sorry.  This is all bullshit.  The “dentists”, or whatever professional they choose, is never mentioned.  There’s no control.  It could have been, “Three out of four dentists [who we found while speaking at a Proctor and Gamble board meeting] recommend Crest.”  The Lysol guys:  ”Lysol kills 99.9% of the germs [that we placed on a smooth, non-porous surface, and chose carefully to make sure it wasn't one of those resistant guys].”  And as for the studies:  Correlation without Causation!!!  Seriously!  What’s the control group?  More importantly, what other aspects of these participants lives have you ruled out?  People aren’t all built the same.

It’s one thing to go off and explain that a certain percentage of participants of SOMETHING had something happen to them while doing something.  That’s pretty solid, like “40% of study participants yelled ‘fuck!’ when they hit their thumb with a hammer.  The other 60% were dead to begin with.”  But it’s another thing to go and say, “Drinking 2-5 cups of coffee a day reduces the risk of getting Alzheimer’s Disease by 26%.”  Are you serious?  So the control group must have been a large group of people who don’t drink coffee.  What did they drink instead?  And what did the participants who drink coffee do after they drank their coffee?  More importantly, how do you determine the risk factor in the first place?

There are more holes in these studies than a bad porno flick.

Leave a Reply

Powered by Great Matter